The PRC Critical Mineral Modeling, an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) tracking system, is based on an early-stage research proposal authored by David Khana and is currently under development. The system retrieves and scores keywords and phrases in Mandarin, English, and Spanish that are relevant to the PRC’s growing economic interventions on critical mineral dominance. The resulting data populate an interactive GIS map detailing global PRC economic interventions, as well as a summary dashboard displaying active changes in real-time.
The PRC’s near-monopoly over critical minerals and precursors, which are essential to the US military and civilian sectors, is a strategic threat. Lacking sufficient US or allied control over these vital inputs degrades US soft power and leverage in political trade disputes. Producing this model quantifiably demonstrates the extent of PRC control over the global economy.
The creation and refinement of the PRC Critical Minerals Model are divided into three main components, each presenting distinct challenges: Data Engineering, Data Analysis, and Real-World Significance.
Data Engineering is the plumbing of the model.
Data is scraped from open-source websites in Mandarin, English, and Spanish that are highly inconsistent. Significant time and specialized skill sets are required to “manicure” the data into a standardized format.
Once cleaned, integers and values are assigned to keywords and terms based on their perceived political and economic significance.
The traditional method involves assigning a score to key terms and identifying strings of exact wording to produce a simple quantitative output.
A new method can integrate AI models into the data pipeline to “read” the text in totality and assign a score based on context. This approach can potentially improve scoring drastically or result in a massive mess.
Data Analysis is the stage of converting the raw data into an actionable, workable product.
Creating the automated systems required to process and manage extensive datasets effectively.
Producing the final deliverables: the interactive GIS map and the summary dashboard
The Real-World Significance component is the final and arguably most difficult stage, focusing on the model’s ultimate value.
The model must answer real problems and demonstrate tangible value to end-users (e.g., policymakers, analysts).
Different skill sets and time commitments are required to effectively present the results and draft the necessary supporting materials, such as memoranda, presentations, or literature, based on the model’s conclusive findings.
With the model’s development and launch, the advocacy work has metrics clearly demonstrating the massive security and economic risks faced by the US. The ultimate goal is to explain to policymakers and the public that the emphasis on ensuring access to critical minerals and precursor elements is not monopolized by foreign adversaries.
